Gabriel Schober
The Pandemic’s Impact on the 2021 German Elections

With the pandemic plaguing the planet for the better part of two years and the German general elections coming up in September of this year, we were wondering, what the pandemics influence on this election might be. The German elections, which occur every four years, haven´t been as unpredictable as they are now for decades. With the current chancellor, Angela Merkel, stepping down after more than 15 years in power, many are insecure about the future. The lockdowns and vaccine chaos, brought upon the country by the current government, only add uncertainty to this unprecedented election.

There have already been some local elections during the pandemic, the most recent ones having been the local elections in the German states of Baden-Württemberg, Rhein-Land-Pfalz, and Sachsen-Anhalt. So far, the old establishment parties and current coalition government of CDU (Christian Democratic Union) and SPD (Social Democratic Party) had to take a loss, while the Green Party and FDP (Free Democratic Party) have seen a sharp rise in popularity. While it could have been expected for the Green Party, the FDP´s growth of popularity was not.

Yet, while the current government parties lost votes in Baden-Württemberg and Rhein-Land-Pfalz, the CDU actually gained a significant amount of votes in the state of Sachsen-Anhalt. Another significant development, noticed in Sachsen-Anhalt, was the return of the FDP to the parliament, while the SPD, AfD and the Green Party lost voters. With these results, Sachsen-Anhalt is not congruent with the aforementioned states. However, the predictions of some journalists, arguing an even stronger rise of the AfD compared to the last elections, seem to have been completely wrong.

What do these past developments on a local level tell us about the federal elections? It´s hard to tell; yet, according to the current polls, the Green Party should see the best numbers in its history, by almost tripling its percentage of votes. The only other party predicted to gain voters is the FDP. All other parties are projected to loose, especially the current coalition government. Is this trend caused by the pandemic?

While there is a clear downward trend for the popularity of CDU and SPD since 2013, the pandemic seems to have amplified it further. The polls clearly show a significant dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the Corona-Crisis. According to some polls, over 80% of Germans find the Corona-Measures incomprehensible and are discontent with the government’s actions. However, there are two completely different kinds of reasoning behind these opinions. One group thinks the government’s measures were too harsh and unproportionate to the danger posed by the pandemic, while others consider the measures as not sufficient to stop the virus. The first group argues that the mask mandate and lockdowns are unconstitutional, destroying small businesses as the backbone of the German economy, and the mental health of children and young adults. The second group believes that stronger measures in the beginning would have prevented the pandemic altogether.

One way or another, with the majority of people being critical of the current government’s actions, it is logical for them to vote differently in comparison to the last time. That, of course, generates political uncertainty. With the Green Party criticizing the government and advocating a more resolute response to the pandemic and the FDP criticizing the government for unconstitutional lockdowns and destruction of the economy, it is clear why these two parties are recording an upward trend.

In the last elections, Germany´s right-wing populist party AfD (Alternative for Germany) saw the best results in its history. Yet, according to the polls, the AfD seems to have been a “One-hit-wonder”, falling down quite a bit in the most recent polls. Although they also vehemently criticized the government´s Corona policies, their voters seem to be losing interest. In my opinion, people are moving towards a less unorthodox party bringing up similar, but more moderate criticism – the FDP. The AfD has been bashed by the German media since they started to become relevant, mostly due to right-wing radicals mixing into the AfD´s voter base. The AfD´s representatives deny any responsibility for that, saying that they can not force anyone to vote for or against them. I believe that the more moderate AfD voters, which were supporting them as a “lesser of two evils”, moved towards the FDP, considering the latter a more moderate option, whilst still raising the same concerns regarding the handling of the pandemic.

So, with the Green party enjoying the most favorable forecasts and analyses, we should be wondering what makes them so popular in Germany. Their agenda for these elections is pretty much as expected. Renewable energy, climate protection, European cooperation, internationalism, digitalism, and equality seem to be the headlines of their program for 2021. Some would argue that they remained true to their original principles. Maybe it is exactly what makes the Greens so popular in Germany.

Still, the Greens’ success in Germany over the years is quite surprising, especially compared to the Green Parties in other countries. In Austria, for example, the Greens are the 4th most popular party by getting around 14% of the parliament´s seats; also, the Green Party in Switzerland has become the 4th most popular party in the last elections, both of which are good results. However, the British, French, Polish, Dutch, and Italian Green Parties gather only an insignificant amount of voters, although the agenda of each Green Party has been the same, and still is the same considering most issues.

So, why are the Green Parties in the German-speaking countries – Germany, Austria, and Switzerland – much more popular than in the rest of Europe? Is there a link between the similarities in these countries´ cultures and the Green Parties´ successes, or is it just the influence of the German Greens on other German speaking countries? The Greens present their vision of the future as one of cleanliness and modernity. Clean energy, no pollution, everything recyclable, ethical industry and technology – resulting in a clean and futuristic world with clean air and waters, clean streets, better living and more hygienic working conditions, where everything is organized perfectly and there are no worries about climate change, pandemics, or any other threat, brought upon the world by the greedy, old industrialists of the past. A perfect antidote to the dirty and chaotic reality imposed on us by the pandemic. The Green Future as the exact opposite to our current, horrible world. Either way, we shall see in late September of this year, if this vision is sufficient to bring victory and if so, what a Green Germany would be like.

 

With the pandemic plaguing the planet for the better part of two years and the German general elections coming up in September of this year, we were wondering, what the pandemics influence on this election might be. The German elections, which occur every four years, haven´t been as unpredictable as they are now for decades. With the current chancellor, Angela Merkel, stepping down after more than 15 years in power, many are insecure about the future. The lockdowns and vaccine chaos, brought upon the country by the current government, only add uncertainty to this unprecedented election.

There have already been some local elections during the pandemic, the most recent ones having been the local elections in the German states of Baden-Württemberg, Rhein-Land-Pfalz, and Sachsen-Anhalt. So far, the old establishment parties and current coalition government of CDU (Christian Democratic Union) and SPD (Social Democratic Party) had to take a loss, while the Green Party and FDP (Free Democratic Party) have seen a sharp rise in popularity. While it could have been expected for the Green Party, the FDP´s growth of popularity was not.

Yet, while the current government parties lost votes in Baden-Württemberg and Rhein-Land-Pfalz, the CDU actually gained a significant amount of votes in the state of Sachsen-Anhalt. Another significant development, noticed in Sachsen-Anhalt, was the return of the FDP to the parliament, while the SPD, AfD and the Green Party lost voters. With these results, Sachsen-Anhalt is not congruent with the aforementioned states. However, the predictions of some journalists, arguing an even stronger rise of the AfD compared to the last elections, seem to have been completely wrong.

What do these past developments on a local level tell us about the federal elections? It´s hard to tell; yet, according to the current polls, the Green Party should see the best numbers in its history, by almost tripling its percentage of votes. The only other party predicted to gain voters is the FDP. All other parties are projected to loose, especially the current coalition government. Is this trend caused by the pandemic?

While there is a clear downward trend for the popularity of CDU and SPD since 2013, the pandemic seems to have amplified it further. The polls clearly show a significant dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the Corona-Crisis. According to some polls, over 80% of Germans find the Corona-Measures incomprehensible and are discontent with the government’s actions. However, there are two completely different kinds of reasoning behind these opinions. One group thinks the government’s measures were too harsh and unproportionate to the danger posed by the pandemic, while others consider the measures as not sufficient to stop the virus. The first group argues that the mask mandate and lockdowns are unconstitutional, destroying small businesses as the backbone of the German economy, and the mental health of children and young adults. The second group believes that stronger measures in the beginning would have prevented the pandemic altogether.

One way or another, with the majority of people being critical of the current government’s actions, it is logical for them to vote differently in comparison to the last time. That, of course, generates political uncertainty. With the Green Party criticizing the government and advocating a more resolute response to the pandemic and the FDP criticizing the government for unconstitutional lockdowns and destruction of the economy, it is clear why these two parties are recording an upward trend.

In the last elections, Germany´s right-wing populist party AfD (Alternative for Germany) saw the best results in its history. Yet, according to the polls, the AfD seems to have been a “One-hit-wonder”, falling down quite a bit in the most recent polls. Although they also vehemently criticized the government´s Corona policies, their voters seem to be losing interest. In my opinion, people are moving towards a less unorthodox party bringing up similar, but more moderate criticism – the FDP. The AfD has been bashed by the German media since they started to become relevant, mostly due to right-wing radicals mixing into the AfD´s voter base. The AfD´s representatives deny any responsibility for that, saying that they can not force anyone to vote for or against them. I believe that the more moderate AfD voters, which were supporting them as a “lesser of two evils”, moved towards the FDP, considering the latter a more moderate option, whilst still raising the same concerns regarding the handling of the pandemic.

So, with the Green party enjoying the most favorable forecasts and analyses, we should be wondering what makes them so popular in Germany. Their agenda for these elections is pretty much as expected. Renewable energy, climate protection, European cooperation, internationalism, digitalism, and equality seem to be the headlines of their program for 2021. Some would argue that they remained true to their original principles. Maybe it is exactly what makes the Greens so popular in Germany.

Still, the Greens’ success in Germany over the years is quite surprising, especially compared to the Green Parties in other countries. In Austria, for example, the Greens are the 4th most popular party by getting around 14% of the parliament´s seats; also, the Green Party in Switzerland has become the 4th most popular party in the last elections, both of which are good results. However, the British, French, Polish, Dutch, and Italian Green Parties gather only an insignificant amount of voters, although the agenda of each Green Party has been the same, and still is the same considering most issues.

So, why are the Green Parties in the German-speaking countries – Germany, Austria, and Switzerland – much more popular than in the rest of Europe? Is there a link between the similarities in these countries´ cultures and the Green Parties´ successes, or is it just the influence of the German Greens on other German speaking countries? The Greens present their vision of the future as one of cleanliness and modernity. Clean energy, no pollution, everything recyclable, ethical industry and technology – resulting in a clean and futuristic world with clean air and waters, clean streets, better living and more hygienic working conditions, where everything is organized perfectly and there are no worries about climate change, pandemics, or any other threat, brought upon the world by the greedy, old industrialists of the past. A perfect antidote to the dirty and chaotic reality imposed on us by the pandemic. The Green Future as the exact opposite to our current, horrible world. Either way, we shall see in late September of this year, if this vision is sufficient to bring victory and if so, what a Green Germany would be like.