Edited by Marko Čeperković and Florence Gaub. Contributions from Donika Emini, Zoran Nechev and Isidora Stakić Balkan Futures: Three Scenarios for 2025
Scenario 1 – The hour of Europe
The scenario entitled ‘The hour of Europe’ presents a positive and optimistic vision of the future evolution of the Western Balkans. Its starting point is the resolution of the ‘name issue’ between Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, which has precipitated a snowball effect of positive change across the region. In the wake of this, Kosovo and Serbia have managed to normalise relations, allowing them
to move forward in the accession process. Robust economic growth in the Western Balkan states has resulted in the reduction of unemployment and an increase in domestic labour demand. In 2025, Montenegro and Serbia become members of the European Union, while the remaining Balkan countries have made irreversible progress towards European integration. The region has become a credible partner for the EU by initiating sustainable reforms and achieving positive results in key areas: (i) making progress in rule-of-law reform, and the fight against corruption and organised crime; (ii) resolving bilateral disputes between Western Balkan countries and those with neighbouring EU member states; (iii) boosting digitalisation, innovation, connectivity, and thus economic growth and employment; and finally, (iv) fostering resilience against potentially negative external influences.
Scenario 2 – The Balkans in limbo
In ‘The Balkans in limbo’ scenario, Balkan countries are still on the path to EU integration, but are making slow progress in implementing reforms due to a lack of political will. The normative framework has been improved in numerous areas that are the subjects of the negotiating chapters with the EU, but all too often the commitments signed up to by the states are not translated into concrete action. The political elites in the region, many of whom have been in power for more than a decade, use the prolonged EU integration process as an opportunity to present themselves as reform-oriented and pro-EU, but at the same time they still engage in populist rhetoric and occasionally even orchestrate crises in order to divert attention from the lack of tangible progress in undertaking reforms. Corruption is still prevalent in many areas in all Western Balkan countries, while political power lies with individual politicians and office-holders, rather than within the institutions. Some of the bilateral disputes that have plagued the region have been successfully resolved, but the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is still ongoing and the full normalisation of relations between the two parties is far from being achieved. Ethnocentric thinking remains the foundation of political life, which is reflected not only in the Serbia-Kosovo dispute, but also in secessionist tendencies in Republika Srpska. Regional security is fragile, and occasional outbursts of ethnic nationalism keep the threat of new armed conflicts alive, while deficiencies in the rule of law impede the effective functioning of the security sector. The external actors (other than the EU) involved in the region – such as Russia – remain potential drivers of instability. Slow GDP growth, coupled with the lack of foreign direct investment (FDI) and high unemployment rates in all Western Balkan countries remain serious problems and render economic transformation difficult.
Scenario 3 – The ghosts of the past
In the third scenario, the Western Balkans are haunted by the ‘ghosts of the past’. The EU integration process has slowly slipped off the political agenda, while geopolitics and violent conflicts are resurgent. The dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo has resulted in the division of Kosovo, triggering the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina, and giving impetus to the secessionist aspirations of other ethnic minorities across the region. The redrawing of borders in the Balkans has not taken place without bloodshed this time either – armed clashes around the newly demarcated borders, as well as violent incidents in the areas populated by ethnic minorities, are almost a daily occurrence. While in Montenegro and Albania the corrupt governments collude with the criminal clans involved in human trafficking and the drugs trade, in Serbia the new far-right movement – which includes figures from previous governments and elements of the ‘deep state’ – has won the elections and shifted the country’s foreign policy entirely towards Russia. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s nationalist government has returned to power and started aligning the country with Serbia and Russia. At the same time Kosovo is facing continuous unrest, triggered by a drastic deterioration in living standards and by human rights violations. Russian influence in the Balkan countries has increased – primarily in terms of military presence – while the terrorist threat has materialised on several occasions over the past few years. Since 2018 unemployment in the region has risen by 10%, while the average GDP growth rate has been less than 1%. In these inauspicious circumstances, the countries of the Western Balkans remain as disconnected and fragmented as they were in the 1990s.
Source: CHAILLOT PAPERS August 2018, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Paris
Scenario 1 – The hour of Europe
The scenario entitled ‘The hour of Europe’ presents a positive and optimistic vision of the future evolution of the Western Balkans. Its starting point is the resolution of the ‘name issue’ between Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, which has precipitated a snowball effect of positive change across the region. In the wake of this, Kosovo and Serbia have managed to normalise relations, allowing them
to move forward in the accession process. Robust economic growth in the Western Balkan states has resulted in the reduction of unemployment and an increase in domestic labour demand. In 2025, Montenegro and Serbia become members of the European Union, while the remaining Balkan countries have made irreversible progress towards European integration. The region has become a credible partner for the EU by initiating sustainable reforms and achieving positive results in key areas: (i) making progress in rule-of-law reform, and the fight against corruption and organised crime; (ii) resolving bilateral disputes between Western Balkan countries and those with neighbouring EU member states; (iii) boosting digitalisation, innovation, connectivity, and thus economic growth and employment; and finally, (iv) fostering resilience against potentially negative external influences.
Scenario 2 – The Balkans in limbo
In ‘The Balkans in limbo’ scenario, Balkan countries are still on the path to EU integration, but are making slow progress in implementing reforms due to a lack of political will. The normative framework has been improved in numerous areas that are the subjects of the negotiating chapters with the EU, but all too often the commitments signed up to by the states are not translated into concrete action. The political elites in the region, many of whom have been in power for more than a decade, use the prolonged EU integration process as an opportunity to present themselves as reform-oriented and pro-EU, but at the same time they still engage in populist rhetoric and occasionally even orchestrate crises in order to divert attention from the lack of tangible progress in undertaking reforms. Corruption is still prevalent in many areas in all Western Balkan countries, while political power lies with individual politicians and office-holders, rather than within the institutions. Some of the bilateral disputes that have plagued the region have been successfully resolved, but the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is still ongoing and the full normalisation of relations between the two parties is far from being achieved. Ethnocentric thinking remains the foundation of political life, which is reflected not only in the Serbia-Kosovo dispute, but also in secessionist tendencies in Republika Srpska. Regional security is fragile, and occasional outbursts of ethnic nationalism keep the threat of new armed conflicts alive, while deficiencies in the rule of law impede the effective functioning of the security sector. The external actors (other than the EU) involved in the region – such as Russia – remain potential drivers of instability. Slow GDP growth, coupled with the lack of foreign direct investment (FDI) and high unemployment rates in all Western Balkan countries remain serious problems and render economic transformation difficult.
Scenario 3 – The ghosts of the past
In the third scenario, the Western Balkans are haunted by the ‘ghosts of the past’. The EU integration process has slowly slipped off the political agenda, while geopolitics and violent conflicts are resurgent. The dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo has resulted in the division of Kosovo, triggering the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina, and giving impetus to the secessionist aspirations of other ethnic minorities across the region. The redrawing of borders in the Balkans has not taken place without bloodshed this time either – armed clashes around the newly demarcated borders, as well as violent incidents in the areas populated by ethnic minorities, are almost a daily occurrence. While in Montenegro and Albania the corrupt governments collude with the criminal clans involved in human trafficking and the drugs trade, in Serbia the new far-right movement – which includes figures from previous governments and elements of the ‘deep state’ – has won the elections and shifted the country’s foreign policy entirely towards Russia. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s nationalist government has returned to power and started aligning the country with Serbia and Russia. At the same time Kosovo is facing continuous unrest, triggered by a drastic deterioration in living standards and by human rights violations. Russian influence in the Balkan countries has increased – primarily in terms of military presence – while the terrorist threat has materialised on several occasions over the past few years. Since 2018 unemployment in the region has risen by 10%, while the average GDP growth rate has been less than 1%. In these inauspicious circumstances, the countries of the Western Balkans remain as disconnected and fragmented as they were in the 1990s.
Source: CHAILLOT PAPERS August 2018, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Paris
Scenario 1 – The hour of Europe
The scenario entitled ‘The hour of Europe’ presents a positive and optimistic vision of the future evolution of the Western Balkans. Its starting point is the resolution of the ‘name issue’ between Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, which has precipitated a snowball effect of positive change across the region. In the wake of this, Kosovo and Serbia have managed to normalise relations, allowing them
to move forward in the accession process. Robust economic growth in the Western Balkan states has resulted in the reduction of unemployment and an increase in domestic labour demand. In 2025, Montenegro and Serbia become members of the European Union, while the remaining Balkan countries have made irreversible progress towards European integration. The region has become a credible partner for the EU by initiating sustainable reforms and achieving positive results in key areas: (i) making progress in rule-of-law reform, and the fight against corruption and organised crime; (ii) resolving bilateral disputes between Western Balkan countries and those with neighbouring EU member states; (iii) boosting digitalisation, innovation, connectivity, and thus economic growth and employment; and finally, (iv) fostering resilience against potentially negative external influences.
Scenario 2 – The Balkans in limbo
In ‘The Balkans in limbo’ scenario, Balkan countries are still on the path to EU integration, but are making slow progress in implementing reforms due to a lack of political will. The normative framework has been improved in numerous areas that are the subjects of the negotiating chapters with the EU, but all too often the commitments signed up to by the states are not translated into concrete action. The political elites in the region, many of whom have been in power for more than a decade, use the prolonged EU integration process as an opportunity to present themselves as reform-oriented and pro-EU, but at the same time they still engage in populist rhetoric and occasionally even orchestrate crises in order to divert attention from the lack of tangible progress in undertaking reforms. Corruption is still prevalent in many areas in all Western Balkan countries, while political power lies with individual politicians and office-holders, rather than within the institutions. Some of the bilateral disputes that have plagued the region have been successfully resolved, but the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is still ongoing and the full normalisation of relations between the two parties is far from being achieved. Ethnocentric thinking remains the foundation of political life, which is reflected not only in the Serbia-Kosovo dispute, but also in secessionist tendencies in Republika Srpska. Regional security is fragile, and occasional outbursts of ethnic nationalism keep the threat of new armed conflicts alive, while deficiencies in the rule of law impede the effective functioning of the security sector. The external actors (other than the EU) involved in the region – such as Russia – remain potential drivers of instability. Slow GDP growth, coupled with the lack of foreign direct investment (FDI) and high unemployment rates in all Western Balkan countries remain serious problems and render economic transformation difficult.
Scenario 3 – The ghosts of the past
In the third scenario, the Western Balkans are haunted by the ‘ghosts of the past’. The EU integration process has slowly slipped off the political agenda, while geopolitics and violent conflicts are resurgent. The dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo has resulted in the division of Kosovo, triggering the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina, and giving impetus to the secessionist aspirations of other ethnic minorities across the region. The redrawing of borders in the Balkans has not taken place without bloodshed this time either – armed clashes around the newly demarcated borders, as well as violent incidents in the areas populated by ethnic minorities, are almost a daily occurrence. While in Montenegro and Albania the corrupt governments collude with the criminal clans involved in human trafficking and the drugs trade, in Serbia the new far-right movement – which includes figures from previous governments and elements of the ‘deep state’ – has won the elections and shifted the country’s foreign policy entirely towards Russia. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s nationalist government has returned to power and started aligning the country with Serbia and Russia. At the same time Kosovo is facing continuous unrest, triggered by a drastic deterioration in living standards and by human rights violations. Russian influence in the Balkan countries has increased – primarily in terms of military presence – while the terrorist threat has materialised on several occasions over the past few years. Since 2018 unemployment in the region has risen by 10%, while the average GDP growth rate has been less than 1%. In these inauspicious circumstances, the countries of the Western Balkans remain as disconnected and fragmented as they were in the 1990s.
Source: CHAILLOT PAPERS August 2018, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Paris
Scenario 1 – The hour of Europe
The scenario entitled ‘The hour of Europe’ presents a positive and optimistic vision of the future evolution of the Western Balkans. Its starting point is the resolution of the ‘name issue’ between Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, which has precipitated a snowball effect of positive change across the region. In the wake of this, Kosovo and Serbia have managed to normalise relations, allowing them
to move forward in the accession process. Robust economic growth in the Western Balkan states has resulted in the reduction of unemployment and an increase in domestic labour demand. In 2025, Montenegro and Serbia become members of the European Union, while the remaining Balkan countries have made irreversible progress towards European integration. The region has become a credible partner for the EU by initiating sustainable reforms and achieving positive results in key areas: (i) making progress in rule-of-law reform, and the fight against corruption and organised crime; (ii) resolving bilateral disputes between Western Balkan countries and those with neighbouring EU member states; (iii) boosting digitalisation, innovation, connectivity, and thus economic growth and employment; and finally, (iv) fostering resilience against potentially negative external influences.
Scenario 2 – The Balkans in limbo
In ‘The Balkans in limbo’ scenario, Balkan countries are still on the path to EU integration, but are making slow progress in implementing reforms due to a lack of political will. The normative framework has been improved in numerous areas that are the subjects of the negotiating chapters with the EU, but all too often the commitments signed up to by the states are not translated into concrete action. The political elites in the region, many of whom have been in power for more than a decade, use the prolonged EU integration process as an opportunity to present themselves as reform-oriented and pro-EU, but at the same time they still engage in populist rhetoric and occasionally even orchestrate crises in order to divert attention from the lack of tangible progress in undertaking reforms. Corruption is still prevalent in many areas in all Western Balkan countries, while political power lies with individual politicians and office-holders, rather than within the institutions. Some of the bilateral disputes that have plagued the region have been successfully resolved, but the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is still ongoing and the full normalisation of relations between the two parties is far from being achieved. Ethnocentric thinking remains the foundation of political life, which is reflected not only in the Serbia-Kosovo dispute, but also in secessionist tendencies in Republika Srpska. Regional security is fragile, and occasional outbursts of ethnic nationalism keep the threat of new armed conflicts alive, while deficiencies in the rule of law impede the effective functioning of the security sector. The external actors (other than the EU) involved in the region – such as Russia – remain potential drivers of instability. Slow GDP growth, coupled with the lack of foreign direct investment (FDI) and high unemployment rates in all Western Balkan countries remain serious problems and render economic transformation difficult.
Scenario 3 – The ghosts of the past
In the third scenario, the Western Balkans are haunted by the ‘ghosts of the past’. The EU integration process has slowly slipped off the political agenda, while geopolitics and violent conflicts are resurgent. The dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo has resulted in the division of Kosovo, triggering the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina, and giving impetus to the secessionist aspirations of other ethnic minorities across the region. The redrawing of borders in the Balkans has not taken place without bloodshed this time either – armed clashes around the newly demarcated borders, as well as violent incidents in the areas populated by ethnic minorities, are almost a daily occurrence. While in Montenegro and Albania the corrupt governments collude with the criminal clans involved in human trafficking and the drugs trade, in Serbia the new far-right movement – which includes figures from previous governments and elements of the ‘deep state’ – has won the elections and shifted the country’s foreign policy entirely towards Russia. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s nationalist government has returned to power and started aligning the country with Serbia and Russia. At the same time Kosovo is facing continuous unrest, triggered by a drastic deterioration in living standards and by human rights violations. Russian influence in the Balkan countries has increased – primarily in terms of military presence – while the terrorist threat has materialised on several occasions over the past few years. Since 2018 unemployment in the region has risen by 10%, while the average GDP growth rate has been less than 1%. In these inauspicious circumstances, the countries of the Western Balkans remain as disconnected and fragmented as they were in the 1990s.
Source: CHAILLOT PAPERS August 2018, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Paris